Why is this War Important?

 

Day 16: October 22

Why is this war important? Looking at the best and worst scenarios for Israel in this war sheds a spotlight on the change Israel needs to face after the war ends.

Worst scenario: the worst possible scenario for the Israeli army in this war involves a halt to its operation or aggression within weeks or a few months. This can occur after a possible ground incursion, and after the front in Northern Israel intensifies. This can also happen in case the war flares into a regional one. Assuming any of these three possibilities is not far-fetched. At some point, Israel falls under immense pressure- international or from inside or both- to end its operation. In this scenario, the achievements Israel can declare are that it has ended the lives of many civilians, destroyed the northern part of the Gaza Strip, and significantly undermined Hamas's existence as a political and military body. However, some of the military capabilities of Hamas will still exist. Whether Israel affirms it or not, everyone working in politics and the military knows that the goal of eradicating Hamas, which is a robust, resistant group and part of the fabric of Palestinian society, is impossible.

In the same scenario, let’s assume the Israeli army decides to remain in, meaning reoccupy, parts of Gaza or the whole of Gaza to install a different government other than Hamas.  This reoccupation of parts or the whole of Gaza is considered a failure from the Palestinian perspective and the perspective of many. The Israeli army will become the target of guerilla warfare, and no single army in the world has won such a war against the local population. In this version of reality, the questions that arise are plenty. For example, how can Hamas be stopped from rebuilding its fighting capabilities in the coming years? How can the next generation be stopped from forming a different form of resistance? Isn’t Israel just delaying the inevitable, which is resistance, possibly in a new shape, carried by the younger generations?

Let’s look closely at the idea of finding some alternative government in this scenario or reinstalling the Palestinian Authority’s rule in Gaza, as was the case before 2007.  It is hard to imagine a third party, whether Arab or associated with the United Nations, in the Strip, especially in the form of a third military rule. Having a third power next to Israel, even if working under or with Israel, is difficult to fathom because I think Israel won’t allow it. In addition, Israel has tried this in Southern Lebanon before, and it failed as a policy and led to its withdrawal from Southern Lebanon in 2000. Will Israel go through this again, knowing the results?  In addition, who or which army will be strong enough and willing to be on a piece of land that has little or no economic significance and yet risks being the target of attacks? Why will they help Israel to quench a new resistance from forming? Who will do this for Israel and why? If the Western powers are unwilling to lose the lives of troops for UKraine, a closer to home and a more important ally for them, why would they do this for Israel? Any military power willing to do this service for Israel will probably be a hybrid group of mercenaries who will be weak to achieve the ‘dream of security’ for Israelis living around the Gaza Strip.

As for the Palestinian Authority, it does cooperate with Israel on many levels, even in undermining resistance from strengthening in the areas under its control. These areas are called areas ‘A,’ only six cities in the West Bank that exist in a ghetto-like reality surrounded by Jewish settlements and controlled by Israeli checkpoints. The rest of the land is under Israeli control. Instead of being handed to the Palestinian Authority to strengthen its position, the Israeli government plans to annex this area surrounding West Bank cities. Under the current Israeli government and the general growing conviction in Israel, and due to the settlement-expansionist policy, the Palestinian authority has been greatly weakened.

The Palestinian Authority is very weak in the West Bank and does not have legitimacy among its people because it is sometimes seen to be working for Israel’s interests. The night the hospital was bombed in Gaza, raging demonstrators were demanding the ousting of President Abbas.  How will Israel influence the structure of or change the figures in the Palestinian Authority to allow for a stronger Authority to govern Gaza? Israel needs to strengthen the Palestinian Authority, contrary to its previous twenty-year policy that weakened it. Even if Israel decided to do that, is ruling people off the tanks of ‘an enemy’ – this is how Palestinians see Israel – and after all the atrocities and destruction Israel did in Gaza possible? 

Added to the above, who will rebuild Gaza? And why? Why invest in a place where, ultimately, it will witness more resistance? Gaza is a small piece of land with little or no economic significance. Gas was discovered in Gaza, but the amount of Gas is not huge. Even with the gas being exploited, will rebuilding Gaza be economically viable? 

Some realistic analysts and politicians see the scenario above as the only possible one. I see each question as a mountain of challenges that Israel needs to climb. What comes after the war is actually the real war. Destruction is easy, but what next? Colonial countries can pack up and go home. For Israelis, this is their home. At least, this is true for some of them, mirroring the South African experience rather than just being a colonial entity!!

Best scenario: This is where I find it fitting to explore the best scenario for Israel. The best scenario for Israel is not to fall under pressure but to wipe out Gaza and its two million inhabitants from the map. Israel is indiscriminately bombing every structure in Gaza, at least in Northern Gaza, that allows for life after the war. They are bombing schools, mosques, neighborhoods, hospitals, essential service businesses, and everything else to force the people to leave. They prevent food, fuel, and water from entering Gaza, forcing the people into submission. Many people have left Northern Gaza, and Israel still bombs the south. This war is an ethnic cleansing campaign to empty Gaza from its inhabitants. Will the world watch this tragedy take place? How long can Israel starve the people of Gaza? How far will Israel go to make Gaza resemble the holocaust? How will the West Bank react when they see Gaza fall? Will the fall of Gaza, the modern Stalingrad, not influence the region or the world?  

Unless the world takes a stand to stop this ethnic cleansing, this scenario may succeed.  It depends on how ferocious the fighting on the ground will be.  Suppose this scenario is interrupted for any reason, such as regional factions interfering to stop or avenge the fall of Gaza. In that case, we are back to scenario one, which is the worst for Israel. No matter how you look at this tragedy, Israel does not seem to be living its best days but rather its worst days morally, politically, and militarily.

In any scenario, this relatively insignificant place called Gaza can prove to be the burning heart of the Middle East as Hamas and the people in Gaza face a monumental war for the existence of Palestinians on their land. Historically speaking, even after the war ends, Gaza can potentially undermine the future of a major colonial Western-supported entity in the Middle East, not just any entity but Israel. If this is not important, then what is?